Analyst Egle Mikalajunaite of research2guidance has modeled the growth of the Android Market and Apple App Store, and based on his predictions, the former will overtake the latter in August of this year. While we're generally pretty weary of these sort of predictions, the short-term nature certainly makes this much more plausible.


The graph largely speaks for itself, but there's a bit more to be said in terms of specific numbers. First, according to their numbers, the Market has been adding more apps per month since October of 2010. Second, it's since continued to pick up the pace (notice that you can see it ramp up quite dramatically beginning in August of 2010). Specifically, the market added 28,000 new apps last month, while the App Store added just 11,000.

The short-term nature of the prediction limits the likelihood of interference (such as Google tightening its grip and dramatically slowing down adds), and is a major reason why I'm inclined to accept the prediction. That said, it's not clear where they got their numbers, which the prediction is (obviously) completely reliant on. Still, the only real reservation I have - and it's a minor one, all things told - is that they assume the store will continue to grow at an exponential pace. That can't go on forever, and when the growth will start to slow is anyone's guess... but it probably won't be in the next 3 months.

[Source: research2guidance]

Aaron Gingrich
Aaron is a geek who has always had a passion for technology. When not working or writing, he can be found spending time with his family, playing a game, or watching a movie.

  • http://www.ericcamil.com Eric

    Excellent data, the only issue I have with the whole "app race" that's going on is in the quality of apps, not so much the quantity. On that note I just bought POWERAMP (this can be attributed to Android Police's interview of it) and again am thrilled with the quality of the app.

    • Aaron Gingrich

      Agree completely. Quality is very key, and there are an awful lot of crap Android apps. Still, it's not too hard to recognize them and steer clear ;)

      • Skillit

        There's a lot of crap in Android's and Apple's apps stores.

        Over 80% percent of the apps are either copies of other apps or just some random crap put together by someone trying to get its hands on development.

    • orlanka

      Definitely agree, it's awesome that there's so much development going on, but there's definitely a lot of junk out there. I don't need 30 apps of of hot asian girls or Abe Vigoda soundboards (which is just a bunch of snoring).

    • Jared

      Was going to say this very thing. Quantity is relatively moot.

      • http://www.ericcamil.com Eric

        A comparison to the number of times an apps been sold/downloaded vs. rating would help clarify the quality aspect. It makes sense why they want to know quantity, for sales, app usage etc. But that's the easier of the studies. Quantitative studies are always easier than qualitative studies.

  • Jgalan14

    This would be great news for my Evo if those apps were great , I didn't download any of those 28,000 apps last month, I think is not the amount of apps but more the quality of the apps, maybe we get some good apps this summer

  • Scott Oldfield

    While I agree that for end users like us, quality is the key, I can certainly see that from a marketing perspective, being able to say that you the most apps is a BIG deal.

  • L Boogie

    Definitely agree with the comments posted though, it's not a surprise that this would happen, it was just a matter of time. And with help from sites like AP, end-users would know what quality apps to incorporate on their devices and avoid unnecessary ones.

  • jay

    people stop copying apple with that quality is better than quanity bull...seriously dont be on this website if your gonna use an apple saying

  • Beatch

    There are only 150k apps for the market.

    Plus, this research is bogus with statistical analysis fantasy.

    • http://www.AndroidPolice.com Artem Russakovskii

      Actually, there are over 186,000 apps on the Market right now, but yeah, this chart is off its shit if it think there are 290k apps in May. Completely inaccurate, at least based on Android Market counts.

  • S3nd41

    It's too bad Apple still has better looking apps graphically, it seems Android devs don't seem to spend much time enhancing the look of their apps. Much of it seems to be related to the base of the Android interface buttons and text fields and such, all of it needs to be reskinned on every app while Apple's base is much more better looking. Would like to see more investment on music creation apps too. Some synths and sequencers and stuff like that to fool around.

    • http://www.ericcamil.com Eric

      You may want to download Power Amp then...if that's what you are looking for.