Our pal Dan Ruby over at Chitika just shot us a note to let us know that he's run the numbers and come up with a prediction for when Android will take over the #1 position in market share in the US, based on ad impressions on Chitika's network. The result: February 16, 2012... at 12:23 PM EST.

He's put a fair amount of time into crunching these numbers - last we'd talked to him (two weeks ago), he was already working on it. With that in mind, it's hard to argue that he's wrong - and it's even harder to argue without running my own numbers or putting in my own research. Nevertheless, call me crazy, but that's just what I'm going to do, based purely on previous knowledge and (mainly) intuition.


While his math seems plausible - certainly well within what I'd consider my own margin of error - I'd consider them a conservative estimate. As Dan points out: as of December 14, iPhones outnumber Android devices on the Chitika network by 2:1, with iOS having roughly 66.7% of the market, and Android at 33.3%. Sounds like Android has a ways to go, until you consider that the ratio was 3:1 (75%:25%) back in June.

That's a pretty huge leap to make in just six months, and Android has been experiencing phenomenal growth. Just last week we found out that 300,000 Android handsets are being activated by end users per day. Steve Jobs bragged in September that there were 230,000 iOS devices being activated per day; unfortunately, that's something of a marketing gimmick - that figure would include the iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. Boil down to just the iPhone and it's likely that Android is outselling the hell out of the iPhone.

Then again, it's important to reiterate that Dan's projection was for the U.S., where iOS is still dominant. Not so in Europe, where Android has become the smartphone of choice. The activations figures above are also global.

Ultimately, I'm saying I think it will happen in (very) late 2011. Pretty close to Dan's estimate? Sure is. But then again, I'd only rank my confidence in my guestimate at 60%. What do you think?

[Source: Chitika]

Aaron Gingrich
Aaron is a geek who has always had a passion for technology. When not working or writing, he can be found spending time with his family, playing a game, or watching a movie.

  • Brian O’Toole

    The Androids have already taken over. This conservative estimation is simply metal-wool pulled over the eyes of the ignorance sheeplopulace. He's one of them, I tell you!

    • Aaron Gingrich

      LOL... he actually is an iPhone user =X

  • portnoyd

    Seems like a limited perspective to make that kind of assumption.

    • Aaron Gingrich

      ? Limited perspective how? And to make what assumption - the overall assumption as to when Android will overtake iOS? Or a more specific assumption?

  • Skylite

    I do agree with the article and with the statistics, but where I have doubts is when the iPhone is released on Verizon. I think Android will continue to rise, but not as quickly as it is right now. As much as I am a Fandroid, I can't help but wonder or have some doubts about this statistic

  • froyoCop

    forget about the date, looking at the curve is just speechless. Steve jobs must be wondering, oh, not again....

  • Chris

    The lines look a bit too straight to me. And the data only seems to go back half a year, while the prediction is for 1 1/2 years.

    Now I do not know how long Chitika has been in existence, but I would take these numbers with a big grain of salt.

    Btw, talking of numbers: the Q3 numbers break down to about 150,000 i*hones per day, at a time when Android was selling over 200,000. Now Android is selling 300,000, and I doubt that Apple is activating many more than before.